INTEL DESK · THESIS LEDGER

Public Scorecard

Every thesis on the dashboard is a falsifiable claim with a horizon. When the horizon elapses we grade it hit / miss / inconclusive and write the result to this page. We do not hide the misses. The whole point of the ledger is honest calibration.

Calibration curve

Each row is a confidence decile. The bar shows the observed hit rate among theses we closed in that bucket. A perfectly calibrated forecaster's bar would sit on the dashed line at the bucket's midpoint.

Biggest misses

Generated . Engine ticks every 5 minutes. Hit rate denominator excludes inconclusive outcomes.