INTEL DESK · THESIS LEDGER

Public Scorecard

Every thesis on the dashboard is a falsifiable claim with a horizon. When the horizon elapses we grade it hit / miss / inconclusive and write the result to this page. We do not hide the misses. A thesis is currently graded on whether the desk’s own confidence resolved high or low at the horizon; grading against independent price and event outcomes is being wired in, and until then these figures measure self-consistency, not accuracy against reality.

Live queue 3 open claims Open theses stay visible before they can improve the public hit rate. Calibration gate 2 closed outcomes Closed 7d / 14d / 30d outcomes are the only denominator. Miss ledger 2 misses visible The highest-confidence misses remain attached to the proof page.

Hit rate

0 hits · 2 misses · 0 inconclusive

Brier score

0.046

Lower is better. Grading window opens at 60: 2 of 60 closed calls graded so far. Graded on confidence resolution, not yet against independent outcomes.

Sample

closed theses to date

Open horizons under audit

3 live claims being scored

14d horizon · 29% · closes 26 Sept

A direct kinetic exchange between Iran and Israel occurs within 14 days.

2 signals · BZ=F / GC=F / ^VIX / ^GSPC

7d horizon · 22% · closes 26 Sept

Hormuz tanker transit volume falls more than 20 percent over the next 7 days.

2 signals · BZ=F / CL=F / GC=F / ^VIX

30d horizon · 47% · closes 12 Oct

Ukrainian frontline shifts more than 5km in either direction over the next 30 days.

1 signal · BZ=F / GC=F

Calibration curve

Each row is a confidence decile. The bar shows the resolved hit rate among theses we closed in that bucket. While grading is confidence-derived, this curve reflects how the desk’s confidence resolved rather than a calibration against independent outcomes, so it cannot yet be read as a true reliability diagram.

0-9%

AWAITING CLOSE

n=0

10-19%

AWAITING CLOSE

n=0

20-29%

n=2

30-39%

AWAITING CLOSE

n=0

40-49%

AWAITING CLOSE

n=0

50-59%

AWAITING CLOSE

n=0

60-69%

AWAITING CLOSE

n=0

70-79%

AWAITING CLOSE

n=0

80-89%

AWAITING CLOSE

n=0

90-99%

AWAITING CLOSE

n=0

Biggest misses

hormuz_transit_drop_7d · closed at 22%

Closed at 22 percent confidence. Thesis statement was not supported by the evidence over the horizon.

hormuz_transit_drop_7d · closed at 21%

Closed at 21 percent confidence. Thesis statement was not supported by the evidence over the horizon.

Generated 20 Sept 2026, 13:05 UTC Engine ticks every 5 minutes Hit rate denominator excludes inconclusive outcomes