Every thesis on the dashboard is a falsifiable claim with a horizon. When the horizon elapses we grade it hit
/ miss / inconclusive and write the result to this page. We do not hide the misses. The whole point of the
ledger is honest calibration.
Each row is a confidence decile. The bar shows the observed hit rate among theses we closed in that bucket.
A perfectly calibrated forecaster's bar sits on the dashed line at the bucket midpoint.