INTEL DESK · THESIS LEDGER

Public Scorecard

Every thesis on the dashboard is a falsifiable claim with a horizon. When the horizon elapses we grade it hit / miss / inconclusive and write the result to this page. We do not hide the misses. A thesis is currently graded on whether the desk’s own confidence resolved high or low at the horizon; grading against independent price and event outcomes is being wired in, and until then these figures measure self-consistency, not accuracy against reality.

Live queue 3 open claims Open theses stay visible before they can improve the public hit rate. Calibration gate Live grading · first close 14 Nov Closed 7d / 14d / 30d outcomes are the only denominator. Miss ledger No closed misses The highest-confidence misses remain attached to the proof page.

Hit rate

AWAITING CLOSE

0 hits · 0 misses · 0 inconclusive

Brier score

AWAITING CLOSE

Lower is better. Grading window opens at 60: 0 of 60 closed calls graded so far. Graded on confidence resolution, not yet against independent outcomes.

Sample

live grading since 7 Nov

0 calls graded so far. Grading window opens at 60. No historical claims were available to backfill, so grading runs live from 7 Nov and the first horizon closes 14 Nov. Every hit, miss, Brier point, and calibration bar fills from real closed outcomes only, never a backfilled estimate. Open claims remain visible below.

Open horizons under audit

3 live claims being scored

7d horizon · 22% · closes 14 Nov

Hormuz tanker transit volume falls more than 20 percent over the next 7 days.

1 signal · BZ=F / CL=F / GC=F / ^VIX

14d horizon · 40% · closes 21 Nov

A direct kinetic exchange between Iran and Israel occurs within 14 days.

2 signals · BZ=F / GC=F / ^VIX / ^GSPC

30d horizon · 47% · closes 7 Dec

Ukrainian frontline shifts more than 5km in either direction over the next 30 days.

1 signal · BZ=F / GC=F

Calibration curve

Each row is a confidence decile. The bar shows the resolved hit rate among theses we closed in that bucket. While grading is confidence-derived, this curve reflects how the desk’s confidence resolved rather than a calibration against independent outcomes, so it cannot yet be read as a true reliability diagram.

Live calibration windowNo closed claims yet. Grading is running from 7 Nov; the curve will populate from the first settled horizon without inventing historical outcomes.

Biggest misses

No closed misses yet. Live grading began 7 Nov; every miss will remain listed here, ranked by confidence at close.

Generated 7 Nov 2026, 19:21 UTC Engine ticks every 5 minutes Hit rate denominator excludes inconclusive outcomes