Polymarket odds, next to the headline moving them.
Polymarket prediction-market odds are now wired directly into the desk for a curated set of live geopolitical contracts, Strait of Hormuz closure, Iran-Israel strike, Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, priced in real time next to the wire.
What shipped
Intel Desk now pulls live pricing from a curated shortlist of Polymarket contracts and renders it in the desk's right pane alongside portfolio and critical alerts. When a wire item tags a contract, an Iranian strike report, a Hormuz transit incident, a Kremlin statement on ceasefire terms, the relevant market sits next to the headline, live.
- Strait of Hormuz closure. Probability of a closure or blockade event within a rolling window.
- Iran-Israel direct strike. Probability of a direct strike by one on the other within the current quarter.
- Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Probability of a formal ceasefire or armistice being announced.
- US strike on Iranian nuclear sites. Probability of a US military strike on Iranian nuclear infrastructure.
- OPEC+ supply response. Probability of an emergency OPEC+ meeting or unscheduled quota change.
Why this matters
Prediction-market pricing is a useful cross-check on wire sentiment. When a Tier-1 source fires a reliability-A headline and the market doesn't move, one of the two is wrong. When the market jumps before the wire, the desk's sort order reflects it immediately. The goal is not to treat Polymarket as truth, it is to surface the gap between what is reported and what is priced.
What comes next
Next on this track: a second row of contracts for macro-adjacent markets (Fed decisions, Brent price bands) and the ability to pin a contract to a portfolio position so alert logic can fire on both the headline and the implied probability. For method notes on how the desk files and verifies these sources, see the methodology.